:::::::::: 글로벌번역통역센터 ::::::::::
 
 



 
 
> 고객지원센터 > News & Notice
ADMIN 2019. 02. 18.  
LIST  MODIFY  DELETE  WRITE  REPLY 
   제목: Hong Kong's Economy Gets Stuck Between U.S.-China Trade War


Hong Kong's Economy Gets Stuck Between U.S.-China Trade War

By Eric Lam

October 5, 2018



Former colony’s export profile dominated by China conduit role


Economists downgrading growth outlook as trade conflict grinds


Hong Kong has long marketed itself as the gateway into China for foreign businesses, especially the U.S. With a trade war now raging between the world’s two largest economies, that’s precisely the problem.



Having shifted its factories across the border decades ago to benefit from cheaper labor, Hong Kong now finds its role as a trade conduit to be a source of concern. Products destined for China and the U.S. passing through the city accounted for almost 10 percent of its roughly $500 billion in exports last year, according to the Hong Kong Trade Development Council.


The import-export business overall represents almost a fifth of the domestic economy, and worsening sentiment on the mainland can spill over into the former British colony in other ways -- most obviously tourism spending. Add the trade war threat to an already-inflated property market, and Hong Kong’s economy begins to look fragile.
Note: re-exports are classified as goods passing through Hong Kong without going through any material manufacturing changes.




“These are the two biggest traders in the world, and they trade through us with each other,” said Nicholas Kwan, director of research at the Hong Kong Trade Development Council. “So when they are fighting, a lot of intermediaries get hurt, and we are the most prominent intermediary between these two.”



The immediate effect of the worsening of the trade conflict this year is hard to disentangle from already-slowing activity, but it’s clear that metrics such as container throughput will continue to suffer if the tariff war drags on.






Gross domestic product grew 3.5 percent in the second quarter from a year ago, compared with a revised 4.6 percent in the first, according to government data. Looking forward, the Nikkei Hong Kong purchasing managers’ index slipped further into contraction territory in September.

The HKTDC cut its forecast for Hong Kong’s 2018 export growth to 3 percent from 6 percent after its latest quarterly export sentiment index reading for September plunged a record amount, from an expansionary 54.1 in the second quarter to 35.8 for the third. Readings below 50 indicate a majority of exporters expect contracting shipments.




The results underscore the gloom surrounding Hong Kong’s trade market, especially in the key electronics segment, which suffered the biggest overall drop to 35.4 from 55.2 in the prior quarter, the report said. The sector makes up almost 70 percent of total merchandise exports.




The trade woes come at a tricky time as the city navigates the impact of a slowing economy in China while borrowing costs are likely to rise due to monetary policy being tied to a hiking Federal Reserve thanks to the city’s currency peg.

“We cannot rely on monetary policy,” said Iris Pang, Greater China economist with ING Bank NV in Hong Kong. “We have to rely on fiscal stimulus, and now is the right time for the Hong Kong government to spend its fiscal money.”

Hong Kong’s Dilemma Is What to Do With Its Massive Cash Pile

Pang cut her 2018 economic growth forecast for Hong Kong to 3.6 percent from 4.9 percent in August due to the trade war, and may slash her 2019 and 2020 targets as well if the conflict continues, she said. Pang currently forecasts 2.6 percent growth next year and 2.5 percent in 2020. Standard Chartered Bank and United Overseas Bank have also lowered their forecasts for this year.

Selected articles from Bloomberg

LIST  MODIFY  DELETE  WRITE  REPLY 





전체글 목록 2019. 02. 18.  전체글: 701  방문수: 2302760
 공지  정규직,계약직,프리랜서직 모집 
701   These Are the Signs a U.S. Recession May Be Coming
700   How a 27-Year-Old CEO Built a Near $1 Billion Fashion Startup
699   Apple Gives New Retail Head Stock Grants Worth About $8 Million
698   New BMW 3 Series to debut here in March
697   Apple Bug Lets iPhone Users Listen in on Others Via FaceTime
696   Naver to open up TV service, take on YouTube
695   Canada's Huawei ban inevitable: expert
694   Apple took unfair profits: FTC
693   Tesla to Cut 3,000 Jobs in Bid to Sell Model 3 to Mass Market
692   Paramount Was Hollywood's Mountain. Now It's a Molehill
691   In the Bond Market, the Economy Is Still Something to Worry About
690   Ford and Volkswagen are about to make cars for each other
689   Why 2019 is shaping up to be a stellar year for space exploration
688   Australia’s Housing-Sector Slump Shows Up in Another Sickly Set of Data
687   Carlos Ghosn Comes Down With Fever in Jail, Halting Interrogation
686   Stocks Rally on Trade Progress as Dollar Slips: Markets Wrap
685   Rupiah Will Beat Rupee in Battle of High-Yielders, Goldman Says
684   Singapore's Lee Family Feud Re-Emerges With Latest Facebook Post
683   Philippine Stocks Are the World's Best Performers Right Now
682   Apple Isn't the Only Casualty of China's Slowdown
681   Here's (Almost) Everything Wall Street Expects in 2019
680   In 2018, Did Business Get Too Big?
679   U.S. markets close in positive territory after challenging day
678   Internet billionaire Reid Hoffman apologizes for funding a group tied to disinformation in Alabama r
677   Musician-turned-businesswoman engages in 'economic diplomacy' 
676   BMW Faces Criminal Probe in South Korea Over Engine Fires
675   LG CNS 4th in AI image recognition competition
674   Oil Sinks to One-Year Low as Equity Slump Adds to Supply Fears 
673   Central bank joins wage worries 
672   Convertible laptops attracting consumer interest in Korea 
RELOAD VIEW DEL WRITE
1 [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] 24