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   제목: The Biggest Political Risks to the World Economy in 2019


The Biggest Political Risks to the World Economy in 2019

By Enda Curran

December 5, 2018


If there뭩 one thing Democrats and Republicans agree on, it뭩 that China뭩 rise is a challenge for the U.S. The risks from China include threats to the technology supply chain, Beijing뭩 military expansion, and the country뭩 efforts to undermine sanctions on North Korea, according to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, an annual report by a bipartisan congressional panel.


Even if the G-20 truce holds, the dispute could represent the early stages of a prolonged economic cold war. If President Donald Trump follows through on threats to slap duties on all imports from China, Bloomberg Economics estimates a hit of 1.5 percentage points to China뭩 2019 gross domestic product growth.

That would take growth down toward 5 percent, though a major policy response by China would soften that blow.

Italy뭩 populist government is locked in a tussle with Brussels over a planned spending spree, unnerving investors and European Union authorities. Next year could be make or break, not just for the populist administration, but also the EU뭩 ability to impose budget discipline on member states.




The European Commission said in its annual review of euro area nations spending plans that Italy뭩 budget is in 뱎articularly serious. noncompliance of EU limits.

Tensions between the ruling coalition partners the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the anti-migration League could see the alliance collapse before or after next May뭩 European Parliament elections, plunging Italy into another bout of political chaos. Even if the government endures, Italy could come under pressure in financial markets. The 10-year yield is already at the highest in more than four years.



Brexit

Britain뭩 ruptured political landscape has obscured the nation뭩 exit path from the EU, with little consensus on how that will be eventually achieved. Amid a fluid situation, the risk of a change in Prime Minister, or government, remains high. A no-deal Brexit could mean British GDP is about 7 percent lower by 2030 compared to remaining in the EU, according to Bloomberg Economics. A Brexit that involves the U.K. staying part of a customs union with the EU would still involve a hit to the economy. Output would likely be 3 percent lower by 2030 in that scenario.

Democrat-Controlled House

In the U.S., the Democrat takeover of the House of Representatives could cripple President Trump뭩 agenda, opening the way for unfettered investigations into his administration, his presidential campaign and his family뭩 business empire. That would mean two years of policy gridlock, so forget about additional tax cuts and increased infrastructure spending and brace for periodic bouts of drama and threatened government shutdowns. A Democrat-controlled House could even launch an effort to impeach Trump though if it went that far, the president뭩 ultimate fate would rest with the Republican-dominated Senate.

Elections

Next year will see elections in several major emerging economies, with far-reaching implications for their policy stance and market stability. Argentina, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Nigeria are among those headed to the polls. As Brazil뭩 recent election showed, strongmen with unconventional platforms continue to appeal. Voters are more keen on sending a message to the establishment than on signing off on more of the same. Of the major developed economies, Canada and Australia face elections, though radical policy shifts are less likely in either country.

Oil


Oil뭩 losing streak has pushed Middle East politics back into the spotlight.


Selected articles from Blomberg
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